According to reports, China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan attended the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors said in an interview, the deposit reserve rate is only a tool to fight inflation, but not the only tool, anti-inflation policy to use all tools, including interest rates and exchange rates. This may be implied to continue to raise interest rates. Two expected interest rate increase may not be ruled out before, the most likely time is 2 end of May.
recently stepped in due huge number of limited release, the central bank's money was being invested. February 15, one-year suspension of the central ticket two weeks in a row after the restart before the holiday issue, circulation is still maintained for 10 billion February 15, the central bank also conducted 200 billion repurchase operation period of 28 days, winning 2.35% interest rate. However, on the open market with 106 billion yuan central ticket expires, 10 billion and 200 billion central bank bills are withdrawn from circulation buy back far enough to release the liquid. Previously, the open market has been running for 13 weeks by the net, amounting to 921 billion yuan, net invest 103 billion yuan last week. The open market this year due the amount of 3 trillion in the top 2 trillion in four months, the central bank to recover the demand for liquidity is still very large, the central bank raise the possibility of a great reserve. After the Spring Festival, the central bank faces liquidity and the pressure to significantly increase. After the central bank balance sheet, assuming that in February reduced the amount of foreign exchange to increase (+3000 billion), the central bank reverse repo maturity (about 4,000 billion), more stable financial deposits, open market operations maturity (approximately was 4100 million) and currency seasonal return (total return is expected to scale more than 4000 billion) and other factors, the central bank still operating in the number of about 6,000 billion yuan of funds recovered.
reserve the 18-day limited rate increases, only recovered more than 3,000 billion of liquidity. This consideration is the availability of funds for banks to lend at a later, to obtain better returns. Banks need to raise interest rates, and increase the interest rate differential means that the increase in bank profits. And each year after the two sessions are policy-lending boom, when interest rates for the tremendous impact on bank profits.
15 announced the CPI index is lower than many expected, but the February CPI growth would certainly also affected by changes in statistical methods, especially in the 20 magnitude of oil price increases significantly higher than expected. Refined oil is the blood of the economy, which for the CPI and PPI is very large, this change makes the disclosure of statistical data in March may not be optimistic.
deposit reserve ratio increase after short-term inter-bank Offered Rate rose a huge week offered rate reached 6.0942 percent, up 329.93 basis points, a two-week inter-bank interest rate to 6.9858 percent, up 290.83 basis points , and long-term inter-bank interest rates have a few basis points a day for several days up slightly. This strong trend is very rare. The current one-year inter-bank Offered Rate has reached 4.4897%, much higher than the one-year deposit interest rate, interest rate and tremendous pressure. After adjustment of the reserve in the high interest rates when the interest rates, changes in market interest rates in line with their expectations of the trend.
reserve adjustments due just to continue to reduce the possibility of increase, I predict interest rates more likely. Run a small monetary policy is now the trend rate policy introduced small but frequent moves, which the maximum to avoid the liquidity imbalance. During this time the central bank introduced the policy of the time interval is very different from the past, this change should be made by the central bank under the new adjustment.
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