Since 2003, China emerged relatively fast growth in the real estate industry, and gradually deviate from the rational and healthy development track. A rational real estate market, its growth rate should be synchronized with the development of the national economy, taking into account China's real estate industry round prosperity and housing reform in 1998, long after the release of pent-focus on domestic demand, and the current state is the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization stage, the development of real estate to some extent, the speed should be higher than the national economy pace of development.
the past year the country property market return to a rational track what kind of shape in the end
be considered rational? In particular, at this stage of the real estate market and reasonable growth targets are: real estate development and investment growth should be maintained at between 15-25% (eg 21.8% in 2006), and should not exceed the total fixed asset investment growth; price increases should be consistent with the disposable income and disposable income should increase slightly speed, now, the price should not exceed 10% annual growth rate (constant prices) in 2007, commercial housing prices rose more than 17%, many major cities increased more than 30%, Shenzhen, Beijing, more than 40%, significantly deviated from rational orbit; the nature of the demand perspective, user demand should be market-driven, investment, speculative demand should not exceed 20% of the total turnover in 2007, Shenzhen Investment, speculative buyers accounting for up to 70%, can be described as rampant real estate the bubble was.
70 cities nationwide housing sales price trend March 07
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5 月
6 月 月
7 月
8 月
September 10 月 08 月 12 November
1 月
2 月
3 月
4 月
5 月
6 月
hand house prices rose year on year < br> hand house prices rose
secondary residential chain rose year on year increase
secondary residential chain macro-control through the continuous, from the fourth quarter of last year, China's real estate market, signs of a correction this year, the property market by the excessive growth of swinging back to the situation more and more obvious, first in volume over a certain range of the housing decline, followed by Shenzhen, Guangzhou and some other cities, housing prices began to fall. This year in June, 70 large in the cities housing sales price rose 8.2%, or more than 1 percentage point lower in May; chain rose 0.0%, which is the first time in recent years, the monthly chain no longer growing, according to the current property market trends in the country, then quickly become negative growth. In fact, the real situation more anti-market chain of second-hand housing prices increase, this year has been 5,6 months in a row of negative growth.
the boom, we can see from the above, the index began in April 2007 continued to rise, to reach the high point in November, and then turned down in June this year fell to 103.08, may fall into recession in the second half interval (100 below). To sum up the track, the situation is clearer, in China's property market is cooling, and gradually return to rational.
the first half of the nation's major regional market status and trends of
to national real estate market, entering the 2008 years, the market accelerated downward, especially a dramatic drop in volume compared to last year. As the economic and between the national regional development cycle of the property market and the development of maturity is not the same, the overall downturn in the real estate market situation, still have the subtle differences between regions. then analyze the performance of the nation's major regional markets.
supply and turnover from the market point of view. most of the city of the first half of the market supply and year-ago quarter and even increased, but the first half major cities over the same period of residential turnover are likely to drop sharply. most of the city was volume decreased to a lesser extent, fell by 36% and 31%.
regional
city
2008
supply area of the first half of
(million square meters)
up
closing an area of
(million square meters)
up
Eastern Region
North China Beijing Shanghai
Shenzhen, South China
Midwest
Chengdu
6 months, compared with previous years, a second-tier cities in the country is still at a low level of turnover, compared with May, significant turnover of differentiation, most of the cities in the , volume increased or unchanged. Beijing, Nanjing chain market turnover rose sharply; Shanghai, Tianjin, Xi'an, Shenyang and other cities last month, trading volume was essentially flat; Chengdu, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Fuzhou and other cities affected by the earthquake or heavy rain , there was a substantial decline in volume.
from the transaction price analysis. in the first half downturn in the volume, the price has to maintain a growth trend, first half of the 70 cities housing sales price rose 10.2 %, or more than 4.2 percentage points over the same period last year. from the regional situation, in June, real estate prices in major cities still maintain the previous trend, the price the city has not shown a strong significant discount phenomenon, Guangzhou, Shenzhen market also does not appear signs of price cuts continue to expand.
cities 5,6 table of average turnover on the market
regional
city
price of commercial housing turnover (RMB / square meter)
2008 年 6 月May 2008
average turnover growth
average turnover of the chain-over-year
East China Beijing Shanghai
North China South China < br> Shenzhen, Chengdu
Midwest
Yangtze River Delta: the first half of this year, the Yangtze River Delta region volume shrinkage is more serious, for three main reasons, first, less new supply,UGG boots cheap, resulting in reduced trading volume synchronization small, in addition to developers to postpone the opening of reasons, mainly the amount of land transfer in recent years, declining to Shanghai, for example, the housing supply in 2006,UGG boots clearance, both years, 234 million square meters, in 2007 only 112 million square meters, 2008 further reduced to 890,000 square meters; two developers generally do not adhere to the strategy of price cuts, leading to reluctant buyers into the market; third is watching the market sentiment strong. We expected that as supply increases, the second half of the volume will be increased, significant rebound next year. from the price analysis, still remain high, but because of increasing pressure on corporate finance, real estate sales in the second half the number of discount will increase, but not much room for falling house prices, the overall reduction most likely 10-20%.
the Pearl River Delta region: in the major area, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, the Pearl River Delta cities in the real estate market, led by the first period of adjustment has started from last August. This year the volume decreased significantly six months, the recent promotions in the major efforts to stimulate, the volume has gone up, will show a consolidation is expected to increase recovery in the second half of the state. from the price analysis, price cut larger, the overall market price level has dropped to the level of early 2007, estimated the current round of downward adjustment in house prices will be 20-30% of the whole South China region .6 turnover year on year compared with a year earlier, the chain increased rate of decline, in June failed to maintain the May deal warmer momentum, but accelerate the decline, on the one hand affected by the storm, on the other hand shows the depth adjustment still.
Bohai Rim region: in June, the Bohai Sea region presents a rational development of regional market trends, driven by Beijing in the supply traded pick up signs, Tianjin, Shenyang volume prices go flat, customers purchase more rational. Overall, Beijing, Tianjin and other cities are still at a low volume level, but the situation was slightly better than the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta. Despite discount real estate sales increased, the rate is generally small, a lot of new real estate price increases are often used first, then discount the sales strategy, buyers are not tempted. now, prices are basically stable. As the overall market is not the Yangtze River Delta and the North be fully developed Pearl River Delta, so house prices down is limited, most likely to cut about 10%.
Midwest Regional: Overall, the central and western regions are basically non-existent housing bubble, the current price earnings ratio in the 6 times the current volume also appeared in the downturn,UGG bailey button, but very little room for falling house prices, it is estimated will be based correction in some cities may be a slight decline. Some of the regional market differentiation, such as Wuhan, although more price promotions , but the turnover cold; Chongqing, Chengdu, March-May trading volume was increased warming trend, due to the impact of the earthquake, the process of market recovery will be delayed, but in the national post-disaster reconstruction and the the property market turnover will be picked up .6, major cities in central and western regions is particularly sluggish real estate market, waiting to see atmosphere is more dense than the previous month.
the real estate market, long-term trend has not changed for the better
First, our country is in stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization, industrialization and rapid economic growth driven not only will further the process of urbanization. Our country is in a period of accelerated development of urbanization, the urbanization rate from 29.37% in 1996, increasing to 44.9% in 2007, average annual growth of 1.41%. theorists there is a famous , will continue until 60% urbanization rate is expected to reach by 2020 60%.
Second, the per capita income growth, lead to continued demand for real estate In 2002, China's urban per capita disposable maintain an average annual 10% revenue growth, robust and growing in our country's macroeconomic environment, the current residents of existing homes for new homes and small rooms for wards, middle and low room for the improvement of residential 高档房 demand. In addition With China's economic development and the changing patterns of urban households, urban households more and more obvious the trend of miniaturization, including marriage, including the purchase of housing demand to some extent, demand is improving.
Third, the population makes the purchase of powerful bonuses. demographic dividend refers to a period of time, the rapid decline in fertility, children and the elderly dependency burden are relatively light, with a total population increase in the proportion of working-age population,UGG boots, resulting in the elderly population reached a high level before form a relatively abundant labor resources, the demographic dividend of the high savings rate, high investment rates and other benefits effectively promoting macroeconomic and real estate industry growth. the United States after the war to the 20th century from the mid-60s ; baby boom about 25% in the last 20 years the baby boom period, China will increase its population of 2.8 billion and currently live in the 30-47 years old age, income level is high among their lives, the demand for real estate .2006 strong China is in the end the prime 15-64 demographic accounted for 63% of the total population, in the bonus period. at the current optimistic estimates, China's demographic dividend can be extended to 2020, but also to maintain the pessimistic projections to 2015. < br> Fourthly, in many parts of the country's urban construction in the period of rapid development, especially in urban redevelopment and other urban development (such as the construction of rail transportation, etc.) caused by the demolition and relocation, will continue to generate new housing demand, and more is a rigid demand.
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